Bitcoin's Path to $100K: Analyzing SOL, ETH, and Altcoin Trends

As Bitcoin inches closer to the coveted $100K mark, excitement builds around potential US trade deals and upcoming altcoin seasons. How will this impact the overall crypto landscape?

Bitcoin's Path Toward Six Figures

Bitcoin’s climb back toward $100K has traders and analysts revisiting historical bull runs and institutional playbooks. Crossing the six-figure threshold has long stood as both a psychological milestone and a technical catalyst, often sparking renewed retail interest.

Last week, MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor made headlines at Token 2049 in Dubai by deploying an astonishing $1.4 billion of company capital into Bitcoin, pushing its price up to roughly $95K. Institutional flows, especially into spot Bitcoin ETFs, contributed another $1.8 billion in net inflows over the week, marking three consecutive weeks of strong ETF demand. While these moves underscore institutional conviction, the $100K close still eluded bulls as BTC hovered just under $97K by week’s end.

Large whales continue to anchor Bitcoin’s range, and on-chain data reveals clustered liquidity between 98K–100K, suggesting both a ceiling of sell-pressure and a magnet that could finally absorb those asks. Meanwhile, sizable liquidity pools lie below in the 91K–93K corridor, which means market makers could engineer pullbacks to mop up these resting orders before staging another rally.

“I know we report a $4.2 billion loss, but we’re still going to be raising another $21 billion of at-the-market offerings to buy more Bitcoin.”
— Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy CEO

Despite the nearing halving season turnaround, Bitcoin’s path is anything but assured: macro headwinds linger, whales remain cautious, and every fractional rally into the $95K–$100K band tests seller resolve.

Economic Factors at Play

Bitcoin’s outlook is inseparable from the broader economic environment. Recent US GDP data showed a unexpected 0.3% contraction in Q1, officially qualifying as a technical recession and fueling debate over Federal Reserve policy. Meanwhile, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—crept higher, pushing the odds of a June rate cut down to just 35%, according to Fed fund futures.

These mixed macro prints have spurred market whipsaws. On Thursday, jobless claims rose above consensus, briefly lifting Bitcoin to $96K on risk-on flows, only for profits to be taken as Fed uncertainty lingered. By Friday, stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls cemented a bullish twist for dollar strength, keeping BTC below that elusive $100K mark.

As quantitative tightening grinds on and interest rates linger near multi-decade highs, liquidity for digital assets can ebb. Yet global liquidity metrics have begun to inflect upward, historically leading crypto markets by about 12 weeks. This potential lagged liquidity infusion might support a late-cycle rally—but only if the Fed signals a genuine pivot.

Assessing Altcoin Season Prospects

Talk of “altcoin season” often surfaces when Bitcoin dominance retreats and capital floods into smaller tokens. By traditional measures—such as alt volume ratios, Bitcoin dominance turning down, and rising stablecoin supplies—many checklists remain incomplete.

• Bitcoin dominance has steadily climbed above 54%, signaling that large-cap coins still absorb more capital than their altcoin peers.
• Stablecoin supply rose by nearly 8% in Q1, indicating dry powder is available but not yet deployed to smaller markets.
• DeFi TVL has recovered only half of its 2021 peak, illustrating that utility protocols lag bull-run enthusiasm.

Developer activity, a proxy for long-term innovation, stands at its lowest level since January 2021. Weekly GitHub commits across major chains have dropped 20% year-to-date, underscoring waning morale amid meme-coin mania.

Historical altcoal seasons follow Bitcoin halvings by roughly 320 days, which technically puts us in the window. But without a clear Fed pivot, retail resurgence, and a reversal in Bitcoin dominance, this cycle may fall short of previous 10× rallies across the board. Instead, expect selective, sector-based pumps—DeFi tokens, emerging layer-ones, or AI-focused assets—rather than an all-out, market-wide frenzy.

Spotlight on Altcoins: SOL and ETH

Two stay-in-focus tokens are Solana (SOL) and Ethereum (ETH). Though both rank in the top five by market cap, their trajectories differ greatly.

Solana (SOL):
• SOL has held crucial support near $140 for over a week, a level not seen since late 2023.
• Futures open interest on Solana rose 12% last month, revealing renewed bullish positioning.
• Broader DeFi activity on Solana doubled stablecoin transfer volumes in Q1, hinting at on-chain traction beyond memecoins.

Anticipation around Solana ETFs has further bolstered SOL’s narrative. While Baseline Finance filed for a Solana ETF in early 2024, analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence peg Solana’s odds of approval above 75% [verify]. If granted, it could open SOL to a new tranche of institutional allocations.

Ethereum (ETH):
• ETH’s price momentum stalled around $3.6K, grappling with scaling concerns and inter-chain competition.
• Developer attrition is notable—Ethereum has seen a decline in new team formations for over 30 consecutive months.
• NFT minting revenue on Solana’s network recently eclipsed Ethereum’s, underscoring shifts in user preference.

However, the upcoming Pectra upgrade (mainnet target April 7) aims to address validator efficiency and data availability. By expanding maximum stakes to 248 ETH per node and doubling blob data units per block, Pectra may streamline network economics and renew staking incentive structures.

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly in Altcoin Land

The Good: Solana

Solana surfaces as a clear “good” case study. Its resilient $140 support, growing stablecoin activity, and institutional-grade ETF filings create a balanced growth profile. After years of memecoin-driven volatility, SOL’s ecosystem is diversifying into payment rails (PayFi) and tokenized real-world assets.

The Bad: Ethereum

Ethereum remains dominant, but “bad” elements abound. Scaling delays and Layer-2 fragmentation weigh on developer confidence. Headlines about meme-coin revenues outpacing core ETH dApp fees highlight opportunity costs embedded in the network’s congestion. Though Pectra may be a turning point, it’s no silver bullet for full-cycle revival.

The Ugly: MOVE Token Debacle

Move Token’s collapse epitomizes the darker side of alt markets. Market-maker agreements leaked by Coindesk revealed shell-company entities controlling 5% of total supply (50% of circulating tokens), with clauses allowing unlimited dumps once fully diluted valuation thresholds were hit.
• The market maker “ReNektech” served both sides of the deal, raising severe conflict-of-interest flags.
• Move Foundation counsel labeled the pact “one of the worst agreements ever.”
• Coinbase delisted MOVE, and co-founder Rushi was suspended amid internal turmoil.

This saga underscores the necessity of transparency in token launches and the pitfalls awaiting uninformed retail investors.

Upcoming Events and Market Sentiment

Risk assets look ahead to several key catalysts:
• April 2 (Wed, 2 p.m. ET): FOMC policy announcement. While no cut is widely expected, investors will parse Fed dot plots and Powell’s commentary for clues on the June meeting.
• April 3 (Thu, 8:30 a.m. ET): Initial jobless claims—another barometer for labor-market health and Fed timing.
• April 4 (Thu, 5 p.m. ET): Coinbase Q1 earnings, offering a window into crypto trading volumes, custody inflows, and institutional pipeline.
• TBD: U.S. Treasury’s budget-neutral Bitcoin reserve plan, due 60 days post-order (March 9). A formal announcement could dramatically shift on-chain fund flows.

On-chain sentiment gauges remain mixed: fear-and-greed indexes sit neutral, social media buzz is muted, and Google search interest for “crypto” hovers near 2020 lows. Yet professional traders maintain call-skew in BTC options, indicating a tilted bias for upside.

Bold Takeaway for Investors

• Monitor macro crosswinds: Align your entry into bitcoin and altcoin positions with clear Fed signals, major economic prints, and institutional on-chain flows. Timed exposure can help capture upside while managing drawdowns in this late-cycle environment.