This Chart Predicts Every Recession: Understanding Economic Indicators

Did you know there's an unofficial economic indicator that suggests dead bodies might help predict stock market crashes? Surprisingly, the concept connects economic hardship with the often-overlooked reality of unclaimed deaths.

The Connection Between Unclaimed Deaths and Recession

In 2020, a study analyzed Los Angeles County’s records of unclaimed deaths and found a significant relationship between economic hardship and the rate of unclaimed bodies. Between 1976 and 2013, high local unemployment strongly correlated with fewer family members claiming deceased relatives. When plotted alongside U.S. recessions, the “unclaimed corpse index” revealed a striking pattern: spikes in unclaimed bodies often preceded—or coincided with—major downturns. This unofficial indicator underscores how discretionary spending cuts extend to funeral costs, providing a grim but clarifying lens on consumer behavior during stress.

The Stripper Index: A Surprising Economic Predictor

Let’s revisit Detroit in 2009. CNN reported that Wayne County’s morgue had a record high of unclaimed bodies—tripling since 2000—during the second year of the global financial crisis. One couple couldn’t afford the $695 needed for cremation, illustrating how far-reaching an economic slump can be in people’s lives.

Surprisingly, the adult entertainment industry also doubles as an economic barometer. When tips dry up, it’s often one of the first signs of belt-tightening. In May 2022, a stripper on Twitter warned:

“The strip club is sadly a leading indicator, and I can promise y’all we’re in a recession.” — Twitter user @NotReadingOutLoud, May 2022 [verify]

Three months later, U.S. GDP had fallen for two consecutive quarters—technically a recession. This “stripper index” isn’t just anecdotal: an Urban Institute analysis found that in five of seven cities studied, sex work revenues declined years before the 2007 market crash.

Lipstick: A Luxury Indicator

In late 2001, Leonard Lauder of Estée Lauder noticed an unusual trend: lipstick sales spiked after the events of September 11, even as overall cosmetic sales dipped. Dubbed the “lipstick index,” this pattern suggests that during economic uncertainty, consumers trade down to smaller indulgences. The Wall Street Journal reported a 12% rise in lipstick sales within weeks of 9/11, shortly before the National Bureau of Economic Research officially declared a recession.

However, the index is imperfect. During the 2008 crash, lipstick and lip gloss sales contracted by 6% and 14%, respectively, showing that not every downturn follows this pattern.

The Weirdest Economic Indicators

Consumer behavior provides a trove of oddities beyond cosmetics and cash tips. In 2009, Maricopa County’s environmental department recorded a 60% jump in residential pool treatments, hinting at an increase in empty, deteriorating homes and preparations for sales. Around the same period, Match.com saw record engagement—the so-called “first-date index”—as loneliness and anxiety drove more people online.

These quirky signals illustrate discretionary spending shifts in real time: fewer nights out, more home maintenance or streaming subscriptions. While they make for fun trivia, their predictive power pales next to established financial metrics.

The 10-2 Bond Spread: The Most Reliable Indicator

The gold standard of recession forecasting is the 10-2 Treasury bond spread. Under normal conditions, 10-year bonds yield more than 2-year bonds to compensate for longer risk. When the spread inverts—meaning the 2-year yield exceeds the 10-year—it has preceded every U.S. recession since 1976.

This inversion reflects investor expectations of slowing growth and triggers higher short-term borrowing costs, squeezing corporate profits and investment. Notably, the yield curve went negative about two years ago and remains inverted today, flagging a potential recession on the horizon. While timing entry and exit in markets remains challenging—short-term returns continued after the 2022 inversion—this indicator remains the most consistent warning sign.

Conclusion: Understanding Economic Signals

• Actionable Takeaway: Monitor both unconventional indicators (unclaimed bodies, strip club tips, pool treatments) and the critical 10-2 bond yield spread to better prepare your personal or business finances for a possible recession.

What other strange economic indicators have you come across? Share your thoughts and help crowdsource the next big predictor!